Download Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability by Roger M. Cooke PDF

By Roger M. Cooke

This booklet is an in depth survey and demanding exam of the literature at the use of specialist opinion in clinical inquiry and coverage making. The elicitation, illustration, and use of specialist opinion is more and more vital for 2 purposes: advancing know-how results in increasingly more advanced determination difficulties, and technologists are delivering larger numbers to "expert structures" and different related artifacts of synthetic intelligence. Cooke the following considers how specialist opinion is getting used this present day, how an expert's uncertainty is or will be represented, how humans do or should still cause with uncertainty, how the standard and value of professional opinion may be assessed, and the way the perspectives of a number of specialists may be mixed. He argues for the significance of constructing functional types with a clear mathematic beginning for using specialist opinion in technological know-how, and offers 3 confirmed versions, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." specific case experiences illustrate how they are often utilized to a variety of genuine difficulties in engineering and making plans.

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Extra resources for Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science (Environmental Ethics and Science Policy)

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Nucl. K. 02 Results of a rough rank-independence test for expert estimates in the Reactor Safety Study for items estimated by at least four experts. 4%. The results concern only those experts who estimated at least 14 of the 39 items. Source: (Cooke, 1986b) or at least as many O's (if he tends toward optimism) in the associated coin-tossing experiment. We see that rank independence would be rejected at the 5% level for five of the nine experts. Nuclear energy is not the only area in which experts disagree dramatically.

We also found that failure probabilities for other accident modes were likely to have been underestimated by as much as a factor of 1000. A congressional hearing on March 4, 1986, reviewed our report and critiques by Sandia National Laboratory and NASA. NASA had decided to rely upon its engineering judgment and to use 1 in 100,000 as the SRB failure probability estimate for nuclear risk assessments. We have recently reviewed the critiques and stand by our original conclusions. We believe that in formulating space policy, as well as in assessing the risk of carrying RTGs on the shuttle, the prudent approach is to rely upon conservative failure estimates based upon prior experience and probabilistic analysis.

The DE's response has been to contract research for improving the quality (and hence usefulness) of numerical assessments of uncertainty. The resulting program surpasses any other described in the public literature in both scale and sophistication. We shall look briefly at the communication and evaluation of uncertainty assessments, as envisioned in this program. Communication The problem of communicating uncertainty to consumers in such a way that they make proper use of it, is formidable, and several systems have been implemented and subsequently discarded.

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